As the excitement builds up for the UEFA Euro 2024, data scientists are using refined machine learning to predict the highest winning chances for France, followed closely by England and Germany. The research team, consisting of experts from the Universities of Innsbruck, Luxembourg, and Munich, has developed a sophisticated model that combines multiple statistical models and machine learning algorithms to forecast the outcomes of all possible matches in the tournament.
The model uses historical match data, odds from 28 bookmakers, and player ratings to assess the strengths of teams and individual players. It also incorporates socio-economic factors such as market value, number of Champions League players, and the gross domestic product of the home country.
The researchers simulate the tournament 100,000 times to determine the probabilities of wins, draws, or losses for each game, allowing them to identify which teams will advance to the knockout stage and ultimately, the winner.The model has been refined using data from the last five European Championships, allowing for more accurate predictions. For instance, it predicts a 19.2% chance of France winning the tournament, followed by England with 16.7%, and Germany with 13.7%. The researchers also use the model to predict the outcomes of individual matches, such as the probability of Austria making it to the round of 16, which is estimated to be 53.4%.
The use of machine learning in predicting the outcomes of the UEFA Euro 2024 highlights the growing importance of data science and statistics in sports. The model can be used not only for predicting the tournament but also for other applications such as weather forecasts.
UEFA European Championship Finals (1960-2020)| Year | Winner | Runner-up | Score | Host Country |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1960 | Soviet Union | Yugoslavia | 2-1 (a.e.t.) | France |
| 1964 | Spain | Soviet Union | 2-1 | Spain |
| 1968 | Italy | Yugoslavia | 2-0 (replay) | Italy |
| 1972 | West Germany | Soviet Union | 3-0 | Belgium |
| 1976 | Czechoslovakia | West Germany | 2-2 (5-3 p) | Yugoslavia |
| 1980 | West Germany | Belgium | 2-1 | Italy |
| 1984 | France | Spain | 2-0 | France |
| 1988 | Netherlands | Soviet Union | 2-0 | West Germany |
| 1992 | Denmark | Germany | 2-0 | Sweden |
| 1996 | Germany | Czech Republic | 2-1 (g.g.) | England |
| 2000 | France | Italy | 2-1 (g.g.) | Belgium/Netherl |
| 2004 | Greece | Portugal | 1-0 | Portugal |
| 2008 | Spain | Germany | 1-0 | Austria/Switzerl |
| 2012 | Spain | Italy | 4-0 | Poland/Ukraine |
| 2016 | Portugal | France | 1-0 (a.e.t.) | France |
| 2020 | Italy | England | 1-1 (3-2 p) | Multiple |